Alone

Be like the wind, not caught in the web
Be like the lotus, not stained by mud
Be like the lion, not afraid of noise
Be like the rhinocerous, alone.

Often than not, we are so caught up with the daily non-stop chattering, trying to fit into the society, keeping up with the pace of work and economy that we got ourselves entangled in the web of the mandane. Therefore it is wise that one should allocate time to himself for solitude and reflections. Just like a black rhinocerous.

The Way of the White Cloud

The last time I visited Tibet was 22 years ago therefore I'm looking forward the next bagpack trip to Tibet in September next year. During that last visit, we managed to visit Lhasa through Nepal, only visiting the eastern region of Tibet. However the next trip includes the more remote and rugged western region as well.

In order to make this trip a success, there are a couple of things that need to be done. Firstly, is to save up for this trip. Next, is to exercise and prepare myself for trip and finally to read this book for more information to where we will be visiting.

This book is not available in any of the bookshop in Singapore, therefore I purchased it from America through the Internet. I should be receiving this book soon.

Anything but Harmonious

Ha ha, this was the remark my friend made upon reading the last few articles. I sort of agree with her as those articles were about recessions and crisis. How can that be harmonious?

However I told her that the purpose of those articles was to remind people to learn from History. These events came with a warning but people were so busy trying to grab even more that they became blind to those warning.

Let' be reminded that in time of happiness, one need to be mindful and in time of crisis, one need to be equanimous.

2008: The Credit Crisis

The Big Crash: It started with the US sub-prime mortgages, which became worthless when the home owners defaulted on their loans. The housing market promptly collapsed, wiping out Wall Street's revered investment banks and pulling companies, stock markets and the economies around the world down with it.

In the US, more than US$1 trillion was lost in a single day when the Dow posted its biggest loss in history of September 29, falling 777.68 points.

Recovery: Nowhere in sight yet.

Why it's Important: Expert say this is the closest the world has come to rivalling the Great Depression. And it's nowhere near over yet, with the complex finanical system still unwinding by the day.

2003: Sars and the Iraq War

The Big Crash: The world was hit with a double whammy in 2003 with the outbreak of the Sars epidemic and the Iraq war. Asian economies, just starting to find their feet after the finanical crisis of the 1990s, were forced back into slower growth and ression fears.

Recovery: Fairly rapid. In fact, after Sars was contained, many economies including Singapore and China embarked on the multi-year economic expansion, fuelled by growing export demand and long delayed property booms.

Why it's Important: The downturn is still fresh in people's mind.

2001: The Dot.com Bust and 9/11

The Big Crash: The rise of the Internet in 1995 heralded the creation of a completely new online market, which companies and speculators greedily bought into. But the pipe dreams dissolved quickly as newly listed start-up folded one by one, having spent and borrowed more than they could earn in time.

Within a week in March 2000, the US Nesdaq lost nearly 9%. The Dow escaped the same fate until September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, After which it suffered its worst daily and weekly losses to that point.

Recovery: Western countries were worst hit, especially the European Union and the US, which went into recession. But the market rebounded permanently in 2003.

Why it's Important: It's the most recent example of what happened when a bubbly tock market, pushed up by speculative activity, abruptly bursts.

1997: The Asian Finanical Crisis

The Big Crash: Crushed under the weight of speculative attacks to its currency, the Thai government ended the baht's peg to the US dollar, causing the baht to halve in the value and the Thai economy to grind to a halt.

This spread quickly to most of Asia as currencies buckled, stock markets crashed and assets price plunged. The Thai stock market dropped 74%, Hong Kong's fell 23%, and South Korea's loss 7% in one day. Asian economies went into recession, weighing own on global growth.

Recovery: Despite help from the International Monetary Fund, recovery was slow and painful, and hit along the way by more economic shocks. But economies in the region finally got back on the growth track, boosted by a global boom.

Why it's Important: Learning its lesson from the finanical crisis, Asia's government built up hefty reserves and may be in better insulated from the currency downturn.

1987: Black Monday

The Big Crash: World economies seemed healthy, but worries were growing about the widening US trade deficit and a rash of investigations into insider trading.

A crisis of confidence hit on October 19, 1987 when jittery investors moved en masse out of stocks into safer bonds. Computers automatically cut their trader's losses by issuing such a large number of sell orders that the system lagged, causing mass panic as investors dumped stocks in the darkness before they fell by more.

That day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 22.6% - the biggest drop in history - wiping out US$500 billion (S$742 billion) in a single day.

Recovery: Trading was restricted in global markets and liquidity was pumped into the system. A fairly quick recovery followed, with the Dow Jones rebounding to its previous level within a year.

Why it's Important: This was the first instance of computer trading systems contributing to such a huge loss, even though macroeconomic factors were instrumental as well. Also, despite the US stock market losing almost a quater of its value in a single day, no one really knows the exact cause.

1973: The Oil Shock

The Big Crash: The world's major oil producers quadruppled oil prices and announced on October 17 that they would no longer ship oil to the United States, its allies in the Western Europe, and Japan. This was partly payback for the US support of Israel in the 1973 Yom Kippur War against Syria, Egypt and Iraq.

The surge in oil prices fed into all others of the economy, causing a jump in inflation and exacerbating a recession that was starting in the US. This led to the first instance of stagflation, which is when people are out of jobs but prices are stubbornly high - pretty much the worst thing that can happen to an economy.

Recovery: Oil prices finally stablised in the late 1970s, only to rise to a new peak when war broke out between Iraq and Iran in 1981. But prices declined gradually again after that.

Why it's Important: The Oil Shock of 1973 is brought up as a warning economic fable everytime oil prices shoot up to a new records.

1929: The Great Depression

The Big Crash: After the extravagance and excesses of the Roaring Twenties, the American stock market - up fivefold in five years - was getting shaky on speculative fears.

Black Thursday came on October 24, 1929, when the stock market began to drop for real after a month of volatility. The market fell 40% betwen September 1 and October 31 and was down by 90% by July 1932.

Widespread misery and unemployment followed, with a quarter of the American workforce out of a job by 1933. The world was plunged into a global depression which lasted 12 years until World War II.

Recovery: War was declared in 1941, and the preparations helped bring the economy back on track.

Why it's Important: The worst depression the world has ever seen, the Great Depression, is still used as a benchmark for how far the economy can fall.

World in Recession 2008

I was talking to a friend from overseas regarding the recent finanical crisis and the looming recession that is about to arrive. I told her of a good article on the Sunday Times with regard to the history of the past recession. She had express interests in the article and I have thus reproduced the article for the benefit of all, including my son who will be working in the finanical sector in future.

My First Entry

Finally! I am glad I have got my blog up and running. I am still learning and experimenting the features in the blog.

This is an advice I have given to myself:
Be an island unto yourself